Europa en el borde del cambio

Daniel Gros publica un breve papel sobre la burbuja inmobiliaria norteamericana, en su impacto en Europa. No aporta demasiado material, aunque los mencionados deben tenerse en cuenta. Basado en la relación entre precio de la propiedad y renta, estima una variación distorsionada entre ambos valores:

over the last decade, the price/rent ratio has increased in parallel with the price of housing, as rents have in general not increased by more than the overall consumer price index. This suggests that the current level of the house prices does not just reflect a higher demand for housing, but is likely to constitute an overvaluation (a bubble?) that is likely to be corrected soon.

Gros considera que la caída en Estados Unidos será acompañada en Europa:

The stylised facts on housing prices can thus be summarised as follows:

• There has been a tight correlation between US and euro area housing prices, with the latter following the former initially with a lag of about one to two years. More recently, the correlation has become close to contemporaneous.
• On both sides of the Atlantic, prices (in real terms) have reached historical peaks, and on both sides the upward movement had, until recently, accelerated.
• Since late 2006, prices seem to be declining in the US. It is thus likely that in Europe prices will soon start to fall as well.

(La afirmación anterior está respaldada en un estudio de la evolución de esta relación, que muestra que en los últimos cinco o seis años el coeficiente se dispara, luego de mantenerse muy estable por décadas)

Gros menciona particularmente a España e Irlanda, alcanzando el máximo de desarrollo en construcción, para iniciar una caída prolongada:

Spain and Ireland constitute special cases. Here, construction investment has increased to levels (18-20 % of GDP) never seen before in any other OECD country except Japan. In Spain and Ireland, lower housing prices are likely to be associated with a sharp and prolonged drop in domestic demand. Germany provides the mirror image to these two cases in that construction activity in Germany shot up to very high levels during the post-unification boom, was then depressed for a decade and might now be poised for a rebound. All in all one can thus conclude that the coming downturn in housing prices should not have a strong impact on the Eurozone average, but it is likely to lead to serious tensions within the area.

Finalmente, Gros recuerda que las crisis en la vivienda suelen ser prolongadas:

One important feature of housing price cycles tends to be forgotten – their extraordinary length. Many last for more than ten years. This persistence means that the downswing, which now seems to have started, is likely to last into the next decade – on both sides of the Atlantic. The US is thus likely to enter a prolonged period of weaker consumption growth and the star performers in Europe, like Spain and Ireland, are likely to face their proverbial 7 years of meagre cows.

Coincidentemente con Gros, Mark Landler en The New York Times sostiene que Europa muestra signos de que acompañará la crisis americana, recopilando signos de Inglaterra y Alemania especialmente:

“The financial turmoil of the last months is not yet behind us,” the European commissioner of economic and monetary affairs, Joaquín Almunia, said at a conference of bond dealers in Brussels.
“Downside risks to the growth outlook have now obviously increased due to the events in the financial markets,” he added. “It is apparent that economic outlook will be somewhat less favorable than we expected.”

(...) The German government cut its forecast for growth next year to 2 percent, from 2.4 percent, citing a more sluggish global economy, as well as high oil prices and the relentlessly rising euro.

(...) While big European banks like UBS and Deutsche Bank have announced multibillion-dollar write-downs of these securities, they insist that they are on top of the situation and that the bad news is public.
But analysts remain wary of further nasty surprises, particularly among less well-known banks — similar to IKB Deutsche Industriebank of Germany and Northern Rock of Britain, which needed to be rescued after ruinous losses. Smaller banks were keen buyers of these complex investments.

(...) The Bank of England warned about this fragility in its semiannual Financial Stability Report, released Thursday.
“There have been signs of recovery in recent weeks but some markets are still illiquid and the financial system remains vulnerable to further shocks,” the bank’s deputy governor for financial stability, John Gieve, said in a statement. “Some important lessons need to be learned.”

El propio Rodrigo Rato advierte riesgo financiero, hablando en Valencia :

El responsable del organismo financiero dijo que la pregunta sobre si la crisis financiera va a generar un cambio de la economía mundial no tiene todavía respuesta. Apuntó que depende de si la crisis de crédito se prolonga en el tiempo y afecta a la economía mundial. El director del FMI aseguró, no obstante, que los riesgos de la economía mundial van en aumento y que "ahora son mayores que hace seis meses". Pese a ello, la incertidumbre no dejará huella en las economías mundiales hasta el próximo año, sobre todo en la de Estados Unidos, origen de la crisis.
Rato destacó que la economía norteamericana se desacelerará "pero no entrará en recesión", mientras que en Europa se mantendrá el nivel de crecimiento de este año. Más optimista fue respecto a la evolución de los mercados emergentes, que aguantarán con "crecimientos importantes". No obstante, también ellos sufrirán los efectos de la crisis si esta se traslada a la economía mundial.

Todos síntomas de enfriamiento de las expectativas y pronósticos económicos. Lejos de las optimistas referencias que suelen escucharse entre los operadores económicos y políticos españoles. Se esperaría que en una crisis en marcha se estudiaran alternativas de control, en lugar de eludir reconocerla.