La Crisis en los emergentes

Frente a los generalizados comentarios de analistas que anticipaban que los emergentes estaban al margen de la crisis de los mercados del Primer Mundo (Estados Unidos, Europa, Japón), tan pronto como la crisis estalló, sus análisis lo hicieron a su vez. Se puede ver ahora con claridad el alcance del poder de las economías emergentes; múltiples dependencias de las economías desarrolladas: sus exportaciones van allí, sus servicios de outsourcing se nutren de las órdenes de compra de allí, sus fondos están entrelazados, tanto porque están invertidos en títulos del mercado norteamericano o europeo, o tanto porque los fondos que invierten en sus países se repliegan para cubrir posiciones o ampararse en economías más robustas. Lo están viendo los grandes del BRIC: Brasil con su bolsa y moneda tambaleando, Rusia en desbandada, India resentida del retraimiento occidental, como China. Sin hablar del abrazo mortal que tienen las reservas chinas con el destino de los títulos de Estados Unidos. Ya no se oyen tan fuertes las voces de Venezuela o Argentina, aconsejando cómo se debe resolver la economía...

En India (Jeremy Kahn, en New York Times):

Foreign institutions, many desperate for cash to cover margin calls and redemptions at home, have been pulling money out of India. Since January, foreign investors have taken $11 billion out of the Indian market, which has lost nearly 50 percent of its value in that time. This wave of selling accelerated during the last month as stock markets in the United States and Europe plunged.

The withdrawals, combined with fears that slowing Western economies will crimp Indian growth, have led to some of the biggest one-day declines in India’s benchmark Sensex index since the country’s financial crisis in 1990.

The rapid exit of foreign capital has also set off a precipitous decline in the rupee, which slid to its lowest level ever against the dollar, breaching the 50-rupee barrier Friday.

The Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank, revealed that it has spent at least $8 billion to buy rupees in the market to soften the currency’s fall. Analysts said they suspected that the bank had an informal goal of trying to keep the rupee from trading at more than 50 to the dollar.
(...) India’s export sector is also anxious. Infosys and Satyam, two prominent outsourcing firms, have told investors that they expect weaker earnings as American and European companies pull back. Meanwhile, imports will be hurt by the rupee’s fall, which makes the cost of goods from overseas more expensive.

En China (Jim Yardley, NYT. Hay una versión en castellano de La Nación):

Chinese leaders say the domestic financial system is largely insulated from the global crisis — China’s banks remain domestically focused and have relatively small exposure to toxic securities sold by American and European banks. But economic growth has fallen to the lowest level in five years, unemployment is a growing concern, and scores of factories are closing in the country’s export region. Domestic stock exchanges have lost 65 percent of their value, and real estate sales have plummeted.
(...) Just last week, thousands of unemployed workers protested outside closed toy factories in Guangdong Province, the country’s export hub. Slightly more than half the country’s toy exporters shut down in the first seven months of this year, mostly small companies that struggled to cope with new safety standards as well as weakening Western demand, according to China’s customs agency.
(...) More pertinent to the United States is whether China will re-examine its strategy of financing American debt. Chinese experts say that the American and Chinese economies are so intertwined that Chinese leaders will not make any abrupt changes in their policy of directing the bulk of China’s foreign currency reserves to dollar-denominated assets.

En Latinoamérica, fundamentalemente comienza a afectar la caída del precio de los commodities, con pérdidas de precio cercanos al 50% en los principales productos (soja, petróleo, cobre), por efecto combinado de menores compras y retiro de inversores en los mercados de compras a futuro. ¿Estaba o no relacionado el aumento de los precios de commodities con la burbuja de instrumentos financieros?. Una revisión al mercado de Chicago puede dar una respuesta...¿Son tan poderosas las economías emergentes? La crisis con que inauguramos el siglo nos contará otras verdades.
Y estos efectos sin hablar de la "nacionalización" de los fondos de pensiones en Argentina, que coincide parcialmente, pero pertenece a otro mundo, el de su destino cada vez más oscuro.