Un apunte más realista sobre China

Mientras la crisis global en curso refuerza el convencimiento de que la hegemonía solitaria de Estados Unidos acaba, la observación más realista de sus competidores y nuevos actores globales, permiten rebajar el verdadero alcance del poder de sus contendientes, particularmente, del mayor de ellos, China. El caos creado por la aparición de una simple ola de frío, habla de su fortaleza estructural: millones de personas sin agua ni gas, sin transporte, escasas reservas de carbón, petróleo, arroz, y un rápido crecimiento de la inflación...
Un artículo de New York Times del 1 de febrero de David Barboza, toca estos puntos débiles, a propósito de cómo pesará en Estados Unidos un aumento de los costos de sus importaciones desde China. Su tesis es que China les exportará su inflación:

Soaring energy and raw material costs, a falling dollar and new business rules here are forcing Chinese factories to increase the prices of their exports, according to analysts and Western companies doing business here.
The rise was a modest 2.4 percent over the last year. But even that small amount, combined with higher energy and food costs that also reflect China’s growing demands on global resources, contributed to a rise in inflation in the United States. Inflation in the United States was 4.1 percent in 2007, up from 2.5 percent in 2006.
Because of new cost pressures here, American consumers could see prices increase by as much as 10 percent this year on specific products — including toys, clothing, footwear and other consumer goods — just as the United States faces a possible recession.
In the longer term, higher costs in China could spell the end of an era of ultra-cheap goods, as well as the beginning of China’s rise from the lowest rungs of global manufacturing.

Y en su descripción se puede observar el cuadro de los desafíos que China, por su parte, afrontará crecientemente: aumento de costos de materias primas, paralelos a aumento de costos de mano de obra

“This is what I call the perfect storm,” said Alan G. Hassenfeld, the chairman of Hasbro, one of the world’s largest toy makers, during a recent visit to China. “We’ve got higher labor costs and labor shortages, plastic prices have gone way up and we’re doing more safety testing.”

While no reliable figures exist on average Chinese wages, experts say that factory wages have risen 80 percent or more in many coastal areas in recent years, with the lowest wage about $125 a month.

Sobre el aumento de costos de mano de obra,

Many Chinese factory owners say a tough new labor law, which went into effect on Jan. 1, complicates the hiring and firing process and threatens to raise labor costs even more, at a time when parts of the country are already plagued with labor shortages. Some factory owners say there have already been strikes and other turmoil over the interpretation of the new law and how it should be applied.

También las presiones internacionales acerca de la protección del medio ambiente:

Analysts say Beijing is also stepping up its enforcement of environmental laws, putting added pressure on factories that had long skirted regulations. Adhering to those often ignored rules increases cost, too.

Es decir, China es un gigante, pero su crecimiento es sumamente desparejo, y muchas de sus ventajas, particularmente las relacionadas con los bajos costos de producción, se acortarán progresivamente. Bajo nuevas condiciones, probablemente la distancia entre los nuevos actores y los viejos no se acorte tan fácilmente.