Declinacion

Zanny Minton Beddoes , editora jefe de The Economist, a propósito del seguimiento de la revista de un foro económico en China:

We publish this week’s issue as I am in China, attending the China Development Forum. Plenty of Americans and Europeans will be here, in spite of the tensions. Deng Xiaoping urged China to “hide your capacities, bide your time”, but his successor, Xi Jinping, wants to reshape the post-1945 world order. His ambition has been on display in Moscow this week, where he has visited his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Mr Xi believes in the inexorable decline of the Amer­ican-led world order, with its professed concern for rules and human rights. He aims to twist it into a more transactional system of deals between great powers. Do not underestimate the perils of this vision—or its appeal around the world.

A lesser man than Xi Jinping might have found it uncomfortable. Meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow this week, China’s leader spoke of “peaceful co-existence and win-win co-operation”, while supping with somebody facing an international arrest warrant for war crimes. But Mr Xi is untroubled by trivial inconsistencies. He believes in the inexorable decline of the American-led world order, with its professed concern for rules and human rights. He aims to twist it into a more transactional system of deals between great powers. Do not underestimate the perils of this vision—or its appeal around the world.

On Ukraine China has played an awkward hand ruthlessly and well. Its goals are subtle: to ensure Russia is subordinate but not so weak that Mr Putin’s regime implodes; to burnish its own credentials as a peacemaker in the eyes of the emerging world; and, with an eye on Taiwan, to undermine the perceived legitimacy of Western sanctions and military support as a tool of foreign policy. Mr Xi has cynically proposed a “peace plan” for Ukraine that would reward Russian aggression and which he knows Ukraine will not accept. It calls for “respecting the sovereignty of all countries”, but neglects to mention that Russia occupies more than a sixth of its neighbour.

Quizá contando a partir del 11 de septiembre de 2001, la sucesión de acontecimientos no deja de mostrar que inexorablemente (¿o no?) se produce una declinación del orden político que vivimos desde el fin de la segunda guerra mundial. Al descubrimiento de que Estados Unidos también era vulnerable, le hemos agregado otro hito: la invasión de Ucrania, con su carga de amenazas de restauración de las fronteras de la Unión Soviética. Tal como están las cosas, es más probable que las amenazas sobre las antiguas dependencias soviéticas se incrementen, así como Taiwan esté más cerca del destino de Hong Kong, que lo contrario.

No es el mundo de posguerra uno ideal, pero sí ha sido más positivo en América y Europa, al menos. Los sistemas sociales y políticos que hoy acrecientan su presión sobre este mundo, no prometen equidad, o esperanza. 

Sin embargo, los cambios sociales se extienden por décadas, o centurias, y se suceden insensiblemente, en pequeños grados que sólo toman sentido mirando largos períodos de tiempo: mientras Giordano Bruno era quemado (vivo) en la hoguera, Cervantes y Shakespeare escribían sus mejores obras. ¿Qué prevalecerá?.