La baja del petróleo

En el Blog de Fernando Flores (15 de enero), reproduciendo al Wall Street Journal:
La caída del petróleo tiene ganadores y perdedores:

La caída del petróleo "se produce en un gran momento para la economía de EE.UU.", dice Ethan Harris, economista jefe para EE.UU. del banco de inversión Lehman Brothers, quien calcula que cada reducción de US$10 en el precio del petróleo suma medio punto porcentual al crecimiento anualizado y ajustado por inflación de la economía. "Nos preocupaba este uno-dos lanzado por el mercado inmobiliario: primero colapsó la construcción y después los consumidores. Los precios bajos de la energía actúan como sales revitalizantes", dijo Harris.
(...) En los últimos meses, los precios de los bonos y de los contratos a futuro han sugerido que los inversionistas pronostican una desaceleración de la economía y menores presiones inflacionarias, lo que permitiría a la Fed bajar las tasas este año. Con la caída del petróleo, estas expectativas han cambiado. "Si esto funciona como un recorte de impuestos y los consumidores gastan mucho más, entonces crece la probabilidad de que la Fed se quede quieta y observe con cuidado los datos de la inflación", dijo Richard Berner, economista jefe para EE.UU. del banco de inversión Morgan Stanley.

Pero, como otros adelantaron, no será lo mismo para los países productores de materias primas

El descenso también reduce los ingresos de los países exportadores de petróleo, incluyendo a los de la OPEP. Leo Drollas, subdirector del Centro Internacional de Estudios de la Energía Global, estima que los 11 miembros de la OPEP ganaron US$518 millones en 2006, un alza frente a los US$437 millones de 2005.
La caída del petróleo, junto a una baja de 7% en la cotización del cobre en lo que va del año, ha desatado algunas predicciones. "Estamos observando el fin del auge en los precios de los commodities que empezó a fines de 2001", escribieron en un reciente informe los analistas de ABN Amro.

Argentina: Crecimiento económico, descenso institucional

Esteban Rafele de La Nación, publica hace unos días un resúmen de números económicos de Argentina, que reflejan la continuidad durante 2006, de las cifras del fuerte crecimiento, y su distribución por áreas. Pero las excelentes cifras no pueden dejar de balancearse con otras más duraderas, las que hablan de las instituciones y la sociedad, que son publicadas hoy por el mismo diario, comentadas por Adrián Ventura, y que ponen al país en las últimas posiciones de cualquier comparación. No tengo más datos a mano que el resúmen de Ventura, pero las cifras me suenan familiares.
La economía, resumida por Rafele:

El producto bruto interno (PBI), hasta noviembre de 2006, creció un 8,5%, en su 47º mes consecutivo de expansión; las exportaciones habrían llegado a los US$ 45.000 millones en todo el año; la recaudación y el superávit fiscal se incrementan a buen ritmo, y la tasa de desempleo es cada vez menor. (...)
El director del Centro de Estudios de la Unión Industrial Argentina (UIA), Diego Petrecolla, reflejó las expectativas: "La industria va a crecer entre 7,5 y 8%; no veo problemas en el mediano plazo. El desempeño desde la salida de la convertibilidad fue espectacular, subió 70% y está un 15% por encima de 1998".

El sector financiero, el más rendidor:

"Quienes más ganaron este año fueron los bancos -afirma, sin rodeos, Orlando Ferreres, del Centro de Estudios Económicos-. Tuvieron un resultado grandísimo tanto en la expansión de volumen como en la de la rentabilidad. El sector financiero no sabe cómo mostrar ganancias razonables", agrega.
El crecimiento de la intermediación financiera, según el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (Indec) superó el 20% en los primeros tres primeros trimestres de 2006. LA NACION consultó a la Asociación de Bancos de la Argentina (ABA), que no realizó declaraciones.
En realidad, el sector comenzó a recuperar terreno hace dos años, después de perder, entre 2002 y 2004, 22.700 millones de pesos.
Según el informe sectorial del Banco Central, la banca duplicó los beneficios que había obtenido en 2005 y alcanzó el año pasado los $ 4100 millones de ganancia.
(...) "Hubo mucha expansión del crédito para el consumo, con tasas altas, de alrededor del 30% en promedio -explicó Ferreres-. Y pagan una tasa de plazo fijo del ocho por ciento. La diferencia, sacando los gastos, es ganancia. El financiamiento de electrodomésticos ha sido un negocio extraordinario. No son grandes créditos, van de los $ 1000 a los 15000, pero el volumen es importante". Los bancos también fueron importantes para sostener el tipo de cambio. El Estado ubicó Lebac y Nobac para esterilizar las compras de divisas, lo que les dio a las entidades financieras rendimientos del 8% en promedio.Las manufacturas, empujadas por el alza del consumo, también mejoran, pero todavía por debajo de su capacidad:

Las manufacturas, creciendo en base al incremento del consumo interno:

La producción de manufacturas, en tanto, siguió disfrutando el buen clima que comenzó a vivir con el fin de la convertibilidad. El sector creció un 8,3% en 2006, poco más que en el año anterior (7,7%). La utilización de capacidad instalada supera el 70% y la mayoría de las industrias realizan inversiones, lo que da margen para que los buenos índices se sostengan este año.

La construcción, también en avance:

Ya se dijo: son la construcción y el sector automotor las vedettes, pero los economistas coinciden en que no hay perdedores entre quienes forman parte de esta obra. La construcción es la estrella del modelo desde que comenzó la recuperación económica, y cerró 2006 con un crecimiento de entre el 16 y el 19%, según distintas estimaciones.
(...) Fernando Lago, de la Cámara Argentina de la Construcción, encuentra las causas en los altos niveles de inversión, por encima del 24% del PBI. Afirmó que el sector se lleva el 60%. "Entre 1998 y 2002 nuestra industria se redujo a menos de la mitad. Hicieron falta casi cuatro años para recuperar el nivel del 98 y hoy estamos un 20% por encima", dijo.
El real state sigue y seguirá siendo un negocio por demás apetecible para el inversor extranjero. Ferreres dio un ejemplo: "Vendiendo un departamento en Londres se pueden comprar 11 acá". Y si bien algunos analistas comienzan a ver atisbos de desaceleración, nadie se alarma: "Es imposible crecer todos los años a más del 20%", dijo Lago, a la espera de que lleguen los tan ansiados créditos hipotecarios.

Pero la agricultura, 2%, y el petróleo, 2%, son los sectores de menor crecimiento:

Para Enrique Ambrosetti, economista de la Sociedad Rural (SRA), "fue un año lleno de incertidumbres, con falta de previsibilidad y muchas medidas que disminuyeron la inversión, especialmente en ganadería, y también en los granos". La inversión ganadera cayó un 30%. Ni hablar de las subas de retenciones a la soja con las que el sector comenzó 2007.

Sin embargo, este panorama de buenos negocios y crecimiento económico, debe ser observado, como se indica al comienzo, moderado por las observaciones de las prácticas institucionales y sociales, que no dan lugar a demasiado entusiasmo, siempre que se estime que una sociedad productiva con buenas prácticas garantiza su crecimiento, y por lo contrario, mina sus posibilidades. Así, el análisis del Foro Económico, comentado por Ventura, pone a Argentina en los peores puestos en una lista crucial de transparencia y lealtad comercial y productiva, lejos de las economías que están garantizando una sociedad mejor:

Uno de los rubros donde la Argentina saca las peores calificaciones es el de la calidad de las instituciones: de los 29 ítems evaluados fallamos en 27, en otro estamos en un discreto puesto intermedio y apenas nos destacamos en uno.
La importancia del estudio realizado por el Foro Económico Mundial en esta materia es que nos permite ver una radiografía de la inseguridad jurídica.
Ese concepto es un latiguillo habitual de las conversaciones políticas y económicas y parece algo abstracto y poco mesurable, pero se vuelve algo muy tangible cuando vemos las notas que la Argentina obtiene en materia de transparencia del Gobierno, eficiencia del Congreso, independencia de la Justicia, corrupción política, libertad de prensa plena y ética empresaria.

En una escala de uno a siete, donde siete es mejor y uno es peor, así aparece Argentina:
Actividad gubernamental:

* Mayor confianza en la honestidad de los políticos: Singapur, 1° (6,3 puntos); Chile, 21° (3,8); la Argentina, 115° (1,5).
* Mayor independencia judicial: Alemania, 1° (6,5); Uruguay, 37° (4,9); la Argentina, 115° (2,2).
* Mayor respeto del derecho de propiedad: Alemania, 1° (6,8 puntos); Chile, 30° (5,5); la Argentina, 121° (2,9 puntos).
* Mayor imparcialidad de los funcionarios, a la hora de decidir sobre políticas y contratos con empresas: Nueva Zelanda, 1° (5,6); Uruguay, 22° (4,0); Argentina, 115° (2,2 puntos, porque los funcionarios favorecen a las empresas mejor conectadas con el poder, según la evaluación).
* Eficacia del Congreso para solucionar los problemas: Singapur, 1° (5,9); Chile, 42 (3,9); Argentina, 119° (1,9).
* El Gobierno usa el presupuesto adecuadamente, para prestar buenos bienes y servicios: Singapur, 1° (5,9); Chile, 20° (4,3); Argentina, 106° (2,5).
* La burocracia pública no tiene peso para hacer negocios: Islandia, 1° (5,3); Chile, 21° (3,8); la Argentina, 104° (2,5).
* Países en los que la prensa no sufre censura o represalias por las notas que publica: Alemania, 1° (6,8); Perú, 16° (6,3); Argentina, 105 (3,7).
* Las contribuciones legales de las empresas a los partidos políticos no tienen influencia a la hora de tomar decisiones de gobierno: Singapur, 1° (6,2); Chile, 17° (5,3); la Argentina, 117° (3,1).
* No es habitual que los partidos reciban aportes ilegales: Singapur, 1° (6,7); Chile, 28° (5,3), Argentina, 116 (3,1).

Gobierno y empresas:

* El Gobierno, cuando decide cambiar una política, informa suficientemente a las empresas, es decir, no los sorprende: Dinamarca, 1° (6,1); Chile, 24° (5,0); Argentina, 115 (2,9).
* Eficacia del sistema legal para defender al sector empresario frente a decisiones arbitrarias del Gobierno: Dinamarca, 1° (6,6); Costa Rica, 32° (4,9); Argentina en el puesto 110° (con 2,6 puntos).
* Casi nunca pagan sobornos las empresas, para obtener beneficios del Gobierno: Islandia, 1° (6,7); Chile, 17° (5,8); Argentina, 111° (3,4 puntos, lo que indica que se pagan sobornos con mucha más frecuencia que en aquellos países).

Seguridad y crimen:

* La amenaza del terrorismo en su país no impone significativos costos a las empresas para hacer negocios: Finlandia, 1° (6,3); Uruguay, 2° (6,2); Argentina, 12° (5,9).
* No hay riesgo de crimen organizado ni mafias en: Islandia, 1° (6,8); Chile, 14° (6,2); Argentina, 89° (4,0).
* Las empresas no tienen costos significativos para protegerse del crimen común y de la violencia: Islandia, 1° (6,8); Chile, 55° (4,6); en cambio sí pagan mayores costos en la Argentina, 106° (2,9).

Ética empresaria:

* La amenaza del terrorismo en su país no impone significativos costos a las empresas para hacer negocios: Finlandia, 1° (6,3); Uruguay, 2° (6,2); Argentina, 12° (5,9).
* No hay riesgo de crimen organizado ni mafias en: Islandia, 1° (6,8); Chile, 14° (6,2); Argentina, 89° (4,0).
* Las empresas no tienen costos significativos para protegerse del crimen común y de la violencia: Islandia, 1° (6,8); Chile, 55° (4,6); en cambio sí pagan mayores costos en la Argentina, 106° (2,9).
* Transparencia de las auditorías contables que se hace sobre las empresas, el Reino Unido está en el primer lugar (6,5); Chile, 29° (5,5) y la Argentina, sí, logra trepar hasta la mitad de la tabla, quedando en un discreto puesto 75° (4,3 puntos)

Es posible adherir entonces a la conclusión de Ventura:

Un problema cultural

La cuestión no es sólo numérica, pues pueden extraerse varias conclusiones importantes:
* No hay que endigarle la culpa de todos estos resultados al Gobierno. La Argentina, por más haya perdido varios puestos en la clasificación general entre 2006 y 2007, no llegó a donde está por casualidad ni tampoco el deterioro se produjo sin que la sociedad haya tenido algo de culpa.
* El desarrollo tecnológico, la infraestructura, la calidad de la educación y del servicio de salud dependen, en cierta medida, de la capacidad económica de un país. Los gobiernos podrían dar esa excusa para sostener que no estemos en puestos más relevantes. Pero la calidad institucional no depende de temas económicos o financieros -por más que influya notablemente en ellos- sino de la voluntad de todos en cumplir con las leyes.

Por eso, lo que esos índices nos muestran es que el Gobierno y también la sociedad -incluido algún sector empresario- no tiene apego por las normas y las instituciones.

Fotografía: New York Changing

Un álbum fotográfico de Nueva York, hace setenta años, y ahora. The Morning News ofrece una galería fotográfica que debe visitarse. Cada nota se completa con una colección de imágenes únicas.

Libro: The New Faces of Young China

Informit comenta y publica fragmentos de un estudio sobre tendencias de consumo en China, escrito por LiAnne Yu, Cynthia Chan, Christopher Ireland. (Publicado por New Riders.ISBN-10: 0-321-45344-1; ISBN-13: 978-0-321-45344-0; Published: Aug 18, 2006; Copyright 2007; Dimensions 7 X 9; Pages: 152; Edition: 1st. )

China's New Culture of Cool: Understanding the world's fastest-growing market
When China opened its borders to travelers and its economy to international trade, businesses all over the world took note. With well over one billion people, it represented a huge potential marketplace for goods and services. Huge as it is, however, China is not a monolithic culture. Though deeply rooted in native traditions, its contemporary marketplace is eclectic, combining Chinese regional styles with elements borrowed from foreign cultures. Most of all, it is evolving at a remarkable pace. To succeed in that dynamic emerging market, smart businesses need to understand its driving influences—especially its urban youth.

Authors Lianne Yu, Cynthia Chan, and Christopher Ireland bring their collective experience and perspective to this thoughtful, beautifully illustrated analysis of the world’s fastest-growing market. Focusing on four fundamental aspects of the consumer Chinese lifestyle—food, style, home life, and mobility—they show how Chinese culture is speedily developing into a radically new form. Anyone who is interested in expanding his or her business in China should not miss this analysis.

Se describen cuatro modelos de jóvenes contemporáneos, y sus hábitos de consumo:

We’ve summed up young China’s motivations in four simple principles—individuality, new experiences, social connection, and contribution to China’s success—but we’re not suggesting that the new Chinese consumer class is as homogenous or as easily influenced as the American consumer of the 1950’s and 1960’s. In fact, predicting the consumer habits of China’s early adopters is particularly challenging right now because this generation is diverse and highly experimental.
With those caveats in mind, we introduce four composite characters—two young men, Wang Liang and Li Hua Min, and two young women, Ding Li and Chen Hong—who collectively represent the hundreds of young trendsetting Chinese we’ve met, observed, and interviewed in person over the past ten years. Though each is fictitious, building stories around their lives allows us to make them real and understandable in a way that numbers and statistics alone cannot. As such, they will reappear throughout the book to serve as examples and guides in the sections on style, food, living, and mobility, or as they would refer to those topics, Yi Shi Zhu Xing.

Los cuatro caracteres:

Ding Li, The Playgirl
Ding Li is 18 years old and lives to socialize with her friends. She rarely sees her busy parents, but they make sure she has plenty of money, which she happily spends on fashion and food. Her hair is streaked with copper highlights this month and her skin is pale and fair, just like her favorite Korean soap opera star, Song Hye Kyo. Her tiny dog, Xiao Bao (“little precious”), is always by her side, usually popping his head out from one of her many stylish purses.
Mornings are busy. Li has at least 30 friends to text or IM as soon as she wakes up. Picking out the day’s outfit and doing her makeup usually takes at least an hour. She buys a dan bing (egg pancake) from a food vendor if she’s running late, or eats breakfast at Yong He Da Wang and then catches a bus to work. The hour-long commute has become much more tolerable since she got her MP3 player. Her job at Esprit is fun. She talks to other girls about clothes and accessories all day. When work is not busy, she reads the fashion magazines on display for their customers.
She spends her evenings eating and partying with girlfriends. They’re constantly hunting for a new nightclub or bar and cute boys to accompany them. Li always has a boyfriend, sometimes more than one at a time, which would make her parents very uneasy if they knew. She is not shy about meeting boys at nightclubs. She and her friends particularly enjoy going to popular clubs, like Bar Rouge in Bund 18, to mingle and practice their English with foreign travelers.
On the rare occasion that she doesn’t make it out in the evening, Li hangs out in her room. Her small room is just enough for a loft bed and a desk underneath. She listens to music and chats with her friends on Instant Messenger. Most of them have webcams, so they will also communicate through those. They surf the Web together and share the latest celebrity news.
Weekends are for shopping. Li occasionally shops online at Joyo or bids for designer bags on Taobao, the Chinese version of eBay, but she prefers to cruise the large luxury malls with her boyfriend. She takes special note of the newest styles from Europe and South Korea. Her most recent purchase included a pair of Levi’s, a new camera phone from Nokia, and a slimming lotion her best friend claims will really work. She loves using her camera phone to take pictures of the latest styles she sees while shopping. Li prefers large luxury malls, not just to see what’s new, but also for the promotional events and product launches. She’s particularly ecstatic when she stumbles upon a promotion related to cosmetics. Yesterday she went to a Revlon event on Hua Hai Road, one of Shanghai’s famous shopping boulevards, and let their experts re-do her makeup.
Li doesn’t think much about her future beyond next week. For now, life is too exciting and full for her to waste time worrying about marriage, careers, or politics. As long as her favorite singer, Rain, produces new songs, and her soaps continue to be available on DVDs, the future can wait.

Wang Liang, The Striver
Wang Liang is a fast-talking young executive with sharp eyes and a broad smile. He could be easily mistaken for a 15 year-old, but is actually 25. He is slim and dressed casually in a rugby shirt and khaki pants that look just like the dozens of shirts and pants he has in his flat. He dresses for success when needed, but fashion doesn’t much interest Liang. What does interest him are fame, power, and money.
Liang works as an advertising salesman for one of Shanghai’s large media companies. His office is about an hour commute from his flat, but he likes his new Volkswagen Dazhong Polo, so the drive doesn’t bother him. When he’s the boss, he’ll get a car that reflects his status—something like the Audi TT Quattro or the new Mercedes that he saw at the Shanghai Auto Exhibition. But with a little luck, he believes, he won’t need to work in business at all. His real goal is to become a world-famous actor, and his current job seems a reasonable path.
At the end of each work day, Liang hurries home to his flat. The 150 square-foot studio is tiny, but it’s suitable for his current lifestyle. He feeds his cat and then spends the next few hours watching a favorite movie and practicing his acting craft by imitating the actors. Today his choice is Spider Man, but he also likes X-Men and any film starring Bruce Willis. New DVDs come out every week, and it’s easy to pick one up from the corner vendor for less than 10 yuan ($1.25 U.S.). At last count, he had over 50 DVDs.
When the movie ends, Liang spends another four to five hours on his computer. The single room that serves as his living room, bedroom, and kitchen is filled with the latest technology. To Liang, technology is as important as food, clothing, or any other basic necessity. He can’t imagine life without it. His computer has broadband access, which allows him to play online with other gamers from all over the world. His DVD player shows the latest Eminem music videos he’s downloaded, and his MP3 player easily syncs with his computer to get new music files for free.
When he’s away from home, Liang’s mobile phone takes the place of his computer, connecting him with a wide network of friends or playing the latest movie. A quick text message lets him know if his friends are available and where to meet them. They may go to a local karaoke bar after visiting a favorite restaurant. On the weekends, there’s always a new club opening or a new DJ in town. If he stays home, he can always watch sports on TV. Although it is technically illegal, he has a satellite dish, which brings him NBA games from the U.S.
Liang loves the U.S. because it’s the most powerful country in the world. He admires Bill Gates and George Bush, both of whom he sees as strong men who dominate their respective fields. One day, he will visit America. He’ll see Hollywood and New York, maybe even Las Vegas. He wonders if he could just stay there, as he’s heard others have done.
Sometime next year, Liang plans to marry his girlfriend and move to a larger flat that will accommodate a family. They toured a model unit at the Spring River Garden in Hongqiao last week and can buy a new three-bedroom apartment for about 750,000 Yuan (about $94,000 U.S.). His fiancée informed Liang that her parents will live with them, but the way Liang sees it, as long as he has his computer, his DVDs, a wide-screen TV, and his sports programs, life will be good.

Chen Hong, The Modern Conservative
Chen Hong is a reserved but articulate young woman in her last year of college. She wears her dark hair long and straight. Her elegant good looks need no makeup. She wears stylish clothing but nothing extreme. If she lived in the U.S., she’d be considered “preppy.”
When she’s not at school, Hong lives in a downtown flat she shares with three other girls. Her mother and father still live in her home town of Guilin, in northern Guangxi province. They have worked hard all their lives and have saved much of what they’ve earned, but Hong can’t get them to spend on themselves. Everything they do is for her.
Hong is an average student. She didn’t score high enough on the national college entrance exam to get into one of China’s top universities, but she’s proud of her design major and believes it sets her apart from others. She’s not sure what career to pursue, but she’s confident it should be in advertising, PR, or marketing because those professions offer challenges and excitement. She doesn’t want a job where she’s doing the same thing over and over again.
The future holds a rich and colorful life for those who are willing to work for it.
Her one-room flat barely accommodates the beds and desks she and her roommates share, but the young women don’t spend much time there. Hong rises early on weekdays and rides her bike to campus, where she spends most of her day either in class or in the library. After school, she bikes to her part-time job as a translator for a Chinese company with many American clients. She’s happy to have the job, as employment is getting more difficult for young, educated Chinese like her. Still, it’s demanding; this week she’s worked every night until at least 11 P.M.
The weekends are easier. On Saturdays, Hong usually window shops with her friends or hangs out at a teahouse or cafe. On Sundays, she always has dinner with her aunt and uncle who live in the suburbs. She has a boyfriend, but their relationship is not serious yet. Although premarital sex is allowed, the government forbids marriage for undergrads. Like her parents, she respects the advice of the government and other authorities, and she never wants to behave badly in the eyes of society. She is ashamed of the young people she sees who are loud and disruptive in public or who dress suggestively, because in her view they reflect poorly on China. Nevertheless, she cherishes her personal freedom and can’t imagine what life was like under Mao.
Hong loves and admires her parents, but she doesn’t want the life they have led. They have worked too hard and sacrificed too much. She would like to marry someday, but she does not want children. Children are a great burden in China. She can not have the rich and colorful life she dreams of having and still support a family. She and her husband will be happy working a moderate amount and spending their free time traveling around the world.

Li Hua Min, the Rule Breaker
At 20, Li Hua Min is glad to be out of school. He wasn’t interested in attending college, even if he had been accepted. His parents still support him and provide him enough spending money to hang out with his friends at the nightclubs, bars, and shopping malls in Guangzhou. Like his idol, Eminem, Hua Min has a tattoo. He has bleached and dyed his hair a bright shade of orange, and last week had his lip pierced. His parents aren’t happy about his personal style or the way he spends his time, but what can they do? He’s a proud member of China’s linglei crowd—a “hooligan.”
Hua Min’s mobile phone directory is filled with names of friends and acquaintances he’s met while tending bar in one of the city’s many bars and clubs. His job and the after-hour parties last well into the night, so Hua Min rarely wakes before noon. Self-expression through appearance is extremely important to him, so he takes his time getting ready in the morning—sculpting his hair with various products, choosing the right outfit and picking the right pair of sunglasses from the collection on his dresser.
Hua Min is on the street by 2P.M., smoking a cigarette while he text-messages friends to learn where everyone will be tonight. Later in the afternoon, he may stop by and see a friend who’s a hair stylist or another who runs an Internet café, to compare notes on the best DJs, newest drinks, or latest club openings.
As evening approaches, Hua Min usually takes a nap to recharge for the night. On his nights off, he and his friends can easily make stops at three or four different clubs. They seek out local places and avoid anything too mainstream, where the foreigners and business executives go. Sometimes they start the night playing games at an arcade. Before making their rounds at bars and clubs, they will fill up on food. Their eating preferences are simple. They will make a quick stop for a bowl of noodles or sample street food at the night market. Lately, they have been checking out some local electronic clubs. Hua Min has made a few friends there who have been supplying him with the drug Ecstasy. He and his friends know they run a risk of getting caught, but they enjoy the temporary escape.
For Hua Min, life moves fast. Friends come and go. Bars and clubs change. Styles rise and fall. The best way to show that he’s keeping up with all of this is to have the latest mobile phone. Fortunately, it’s easy to sell his old one on Taobao, China’s local version of eBay, so he’s happy to upgrade often. Right now, life is about fun and experimentation. Life would not be meaningful if it revolved around only work and making and saving money, the way his parents’ lives do. As long as he’s connected to the ever-expanding network of young, cool Chinese, the future won’t leave him behind.

Estos perfiles imaginarios no resultan extraños a las realidades intuídas; pero sí son lejanos a las referencias formales, a las estructuras políticas oficiales. En un país complejo e inabarcable, el futuro está en manos de cada uno de sus componentes, que modelarán la próxima sociedad. En algún momento, China deberá resolver la distancia entre su estructura formal, y el país real que se está horneando rápidamente. Cuando se examina la diferencia entre India y China, estos componentes informales deben ser tomados en cuenta: la ventaja del entrepeneurismo indio puede ser relativa.

Oppenheimer : prevalencia de India?

La Nación comienza una serie de notas sobre India, con una evaluación de las posibilidades de crecimiento comparadas con las chinas, en el futuro próximo. Oppenheimer sigue las líneas de diagnóstico de Gurcharan Das, pero con una afirmación de las posibilidades de crecimiento de las manufacturas indias, señaladas por Das como uno de los puntos débiles centrales del país.

En contraste con las grandes ciudades chinas, donde en el paisaje urbano abundan las gigantescas grúas en las obras en construcción -había 5000 sólo en Pekín cuando visité China en 2005- en Nueva Delhi no vi ninguna. En realidad, no hay rascacielos en la capital india y se ve poca restauración de los edificios más viejos.

Pero las primeras impresiones en la India son a menudo engañosas. Este país está atravesando una ola de optimismo rara vez visto en el resto del mundo en desarrollo. Desde que el Consejo Nacional de Inteligencia de los Estados Unidos -el centro de estudios e investigaciones estratégicas de la CIA- hace poco pronosticó que la India será la tercera superpotencia mundial en 2020, detrás de los Estados Unidos y China, este país desborda de autoconfianza, empuje y ambición.

La economía pasa por un momento floreciente. Creció el 8% anual en los últimos dos años, después de crecer un promedio de casi 6% anual durante los años 80 y 90. Comparativamente, América latina ha estado creciendo un promedio del 4,5% desde hace cuatro años. "Durante un largo período, parecía que estábamos creciendo bien, aunque no realmente dentro del grupo de países de mayor crecimiento", comentó Ahluwalia. "Sin embargo -agregó-, en los últimos tres años parece que nos hemos sumado al grupo de mayor crecimiento. Realmente comienzan a percibirse los beneficios de las reformas económicas que la India ha estado introduciendo desde 1991.

El gobierno de centroizquierda habla de la "Nueva India". La Fundación India Brand Equity, un centro de promoción encabezado por el sector privado, está promoviendo el país en el extranjero como "la democracia de libre mercado que más crece en el mundo". El diario The Times of India está publicando una serie de artículos titulados "La India está en marcha".

El principal soporte de crecimiento indú, los servicios:

En comparación con el desarrollo de China, que se basa en exportaciones de manufacturas e inversiones extranjeras, el desarrollo indio está sustentado en los servicios -especialmente tecnología informática y productos farmacéuticos- e inversiones locales.
"Nuestro crecimiento no está impulsado por el sector estatal, sino por el sector privado", me dijo en otra entrevista el ministro de Comercio e Industria, Kamal Nath. Las compañías de tecnología informática están convirtiendo a la India en el centro mundial para veintenas de servicios de contratación externa, entre ellos contabilidad, ingeniería y diagnósticos médicos de rayos X. Los servicios significan y equivalen hoy a la mitad de la economía de la India, mientras que las manufacturas son sólo el 17%.

La industria manufacturera, posible motor de crecimiento humano:

De acuerdo con los funcionarios, si la India puede en los próximos cinco años alcanzar la meta de aumentar el sector de manufacturas para que signifique el 25% de la economía -un objetivo clave en su esfuerzo para sacar de la pobreza a sus, según se estima, 270 millones de pobres- el país podrá tener índices de crecimiento mayores que China.
"Contamos con una enorme ventaja demográfica: una población mucho más joven", añadió el ministro Nath. Con casi un tercio menor de 15 años, la población de la India es mucho más joven que la de China, y por lo tanto lista para ingresar en la fuerza laboral.

El modelo político puede jugar a favor de India:

Pero la mayoría de los habitantes indios parece pensar que, en la carrera del desarrollo, la India será la tortuga y China la liebre. A la larga, según ellos, su sistema democrático hará a la India más atractiva para el resto del mundo, y hará que sea menos probable un estallido social.
(...) Mi opinión: la India de hoy es la China de hace 15 años. Pero India está ganando terreno rápidamente. Tiene una población joven con una elite técnica sumamente capacitada, un sistema democrático, y una tradición espiritual que la ayuda a proyectarse como una potencia regional que no es amenazante, y un consenso general sobre la necesidad de continuar con su apertura económica. No me sorprendería que, la próxima vez que venga a la India, mirando el horizonte vea gigantescas grúas, menos bueyes en las calles y un flamante aeropuerto internacional. India está despegando.

Fotos del presente social de India en Polar Inertia

China entre dos mundos: una sociedad en imágenes

Estos son sólo dos ejemplos. Fotografías de la moderna sociedad china, un mundo de contradicciones. Recuerdan las imágenes que quedaron para siempre en los filmes de Chaplín, Keaton y otros, de las ciudades de Los Angeles, Chicago, Nueva York, en plena construcción y contradicción, a principios del siglo veinte. Quizá la comparación termina aquí, dadas las diferencias de tradiciones y posibilidades sociales de ambas sociedades. Aunque una sociedad tan compleja puede ser difícil de controlar...
Producidas por Daniel Traub, aquí su introducción en Polar Inertia:

City’s Edge
This photographic series explores the peripheries of Chinese cities: the strange and nebulous region where urban and rural China meet. Like much of the developing world, China is racing towards urbanization at an unprecedented rate. China, specifically, intends to build 400 new cities by 2020. We see all the elements of this new and contradictory world: homogenous, industrial parks and residential communities pressing against age old rhythms of villages and farms; the new rich living in gated communities next to migrant workers shanty towns; burning mountains of trash next to lushly watered golf courses and country clubs.
This region is also home to what has been called the “greatest land grab in history,” as it is here that fields previously farmed by peasants are appropriated by low level government officials and sold to developers at tremendous profits. The peasants often are left without reasonable compensation, a means of livelihood or legal recourse. Riots and protests occur almost daily throughout China due to this repurposing of land.
Daniel Traub
www.danieltraub.net

Encontrado gracias a Juan Freire y N. Quiroga (Tapera).

Guangzhou alcanza los diez mil dólares de ingreso anual per cápita

Nota de The New York Times: Guangzhou proscribirá bicicletas y otros ciclomotores para frenar la creciente delincuencia. Así, millones de personas pasarían a ver sus vehiculos en la ilegalidad.
La ciudad de Guangzhou es la primera ciudad China en alcanzar los 10.000 u$s anuales per cápita de ingreso bruto. Pero el crecimiento trae también los problemas del crecimiento caótico:

Yet cities like Guangzhou and nearby Shenzhen, which have already begun to taste real prosperity, are learning how new wealth can bring new problems and not always solve the old ones. As incomes have risen in Guangzhou, so have crime, traffic and inequality.

En una región de atracción laboral, conviven siete millones y medio de residentes locales, con casi cuatro millones de inmigrantes internos:

Inequality here is unquestionably stark between the 7.5 million registered residents and the estimated 3.7 million migrants. This week, Guangzhou had to lower its per capita income figure to $7,800; the $10,000 level had been calculated without including migrants, whose wages are notoriously low.
(...)Along Beijing Road, one of Guangzhou’s most fashionable shopping boulevards, random interviews found that nearly everyone had been robbed or knew someone who had been. Maggie Qu, 20, who recently graduated from a local technical college, said a thief stole her wallet and cellphone out of her purse two months ago. Her friend, Chen Jianguo, 21, expressed sympathy for migrants — “They are Chinese, after all” — but he blamed them for the crime problem. “They do bring crime,” Mr. Chen said. “Unemployed people and uneducated people have to make a living, so they may resort to crime.”

Las motos y bicicletas en el delito:

The vehicles, the primary mode of transport for migrant workers clawing their way up Guangzhou’s economic ladder, are also favored by criminals who have terrorized the city in recent years, including a shocking case in late 2005, when a woman had her hand cut off by a thief on a motorcycle. News accounts concluded that motorcycle thieves were divided into gangs, including one called the Hand Choppers.
(...) Of course, migrants are also responsible for performing the hard labor that generates much of the city’s economic output — just like elsewhere in China. Ye Cunhuan migrated to Guangzhou from Hubei Province in 2003 and opened four stores that sell motorized bicycles. These bikes, equipped with small motors, are popular for deliveries and also for people who cannot afford a motorcycle. Now, Ms. Ye has had to close two stores and is facing ruin.

“This has been fatal to my business,” she said.

Latinoamérica y sus commodities

La segunda semana de enero trajo una advertencia a las economías latinoamericanas, que pone a prueba la calidad y robustez de la bonanza económica circunstancial de cada uno de ellos: una fuerte caída de las bolsas mundiales, motivadas en el anuncio de nacionalizaciones en Venezuela.
Algunos años favorables en el valor de los productos primarios generaron un crecimiento sostenido de los valores de las economías latinoamericanas: el petróleo para Ecuador, México, Venezuela; el cobre en Chile, la soja y otros productos agrícolas en Argentina. Pero no todos ellos mantienen estrategias de creación de bases económicas o técnicas que conviertan las ventajas temporales en progresos sólidos. Ya lo mencionaba hace poco Kenneth Rogoff:

El actual profesor de la Universidad de Harvard, que trabajó en el FMI en plena crisis argentina, entre 2001 y 2003, vaticinó en una entrevista que publicó ayer el diario chileno La Tercera que el país "colapsará en grande cuando el ciclo alto de las commodities (materias primas) pase, cuando tengamos la próxima recesión"

Un estudio detallado de la composición y valor de las exportaciones latinoamericanas, en Inter-American Development Bank:

According to IDB trade specialists, this year’s strong export performance was largely the result of robust economic growth in the United States and the demand for commodities from rapidly expanding Asian economies, particularly China and India.
Other factors influencing the increase were the continuing recovery of trade among sub-regional blocs such as the Andean Community (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela[1]) and Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), as well as the implementation of agreements between Chile and the United States and between Mercosur and the Andean Community.
However, the outlook for Latin American exports is mixed, the analysts noted, due to several negative and positive factors that will probably influence future flows.
“Looking forward, the region’s prospects of sustaining such an impressive performance seem to hang on the complex interplay between the challenges and opportunities looming in the horizon,” the report said.
Among the factors that could dampen future export growth: a downturn in the prices of key commodities such as soybeans and copper, a slowdown in the U.S. economy, intensified competition from Asian textiles and apparel, and the currency appreciation experienced by most Latin American currencies.
Those factors could be counterbalanced, at least in part, if China and India maintain their high levels of economic growth, as well as by the expanding access to U.S. and Asian markets under deals such as the Central American Free Trade Agreement and agreements signed by Chile, Mexico and Peru in the framework of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group.

Las bolsas subirán o bajarán, pero no hay dudas de que el precio de los commodities no será siempre favorable, y lo que pesará serán las decisiones de fondo, en conocimiento, en infraestructuras, en capitalización.

Cataluña y el castellano

Publicado por Las Provincias, de Valencia:

Cataluña amenaza al Gobierno de Zapatero con un recurso de inconstitucionalidad por un real decreto que entre otras cuestiones fija tres horas de castellano a la semana. Se trata del primer choque entre el nuevo tripartito catalán y el Ejecutivo central, por los contenidos mínimos en Educación.
(...) El motivo es el Real Decreto que regula las enseñanzas mínimas en Primaria aprobado la semana pasada y que entre otras cuestiones, fija una tercera hora de castellano. Según explicó el conseller de Política Territorial y Obras Públicas de la Generalitat, Joaquim Nadal, el Ejecutivo presentará un requerimiento de incompetencia -el paso previo al recurso de inconstitucionalidad- sin entrar en el contenido al detalle, para abordar estrictamente la invasión competencial.

Si bien la discusión se plantea en el terreno de competencias jurisdiccionales, detrás está la discusión por las restricciones al uso de la lengua castellana, cada vez más acorralada por las decisiones autonómicas catalanas.
Después de haber sido víctimas de discriminación lingüística, los gobiernos catalanes practican la suya propia al idioma español. ¿Entenderán que balcanizar España daría los mismos frutos que en Yugoslavia?
El fenómeno de las regionalidades en España es inentendible viéndolo desde afuera. En mi caso, no imaginaba su alcance hasta vivirlo: Es curioso detenerse en las estaciones ferroviarias de la comunidad valenciana, por ejemplo, y cruzarse no sólo con ancianos hablando valenciano, sino también jóvenes y niños. Esto evidencia la convivencia de dos lenguas en un sitio. Sin embargo la distancia no es tan grande cuando se explayan los usos y costumbres, la historia familiar, la historia regional.
El año comienza con nubes en el horizonte, luego del reinicio de la violencia en Euskadi. Sin embargo, la sociedad real no es lo que parece al nivel de las decisiones autonómicas. Es de esperar que en el largo plazo las diferencias (linguísticas) se resuelvan integradas.

GM y Toyota, dos formas de pensar

Jon Miller compara Toyota con GM a propósito de declaraciones del CEO de GM, Wagoner:

Mr. Wagoner fails to understand that the goal for the General Motors Corporation is absolutely positively definitely and without a doubt not to remain in the number one spot on the basis of the number of automobiles produced in one year. Unless all of these vehicles are sold, and unless the company is profitable and is generating free cash flow as a result, being number one is pointless for GM. Toyota understands this, and that is why they will displace GM as number one. That is also why Toyota is playing down this issue.

El error de Wagoner es suponer que todo se reduce a tener la capacidad de producir:

I am in the middle of translating Taiichi Ohno's Gemba Keiei into English at the moment and many times he says "We do not make what will not sell." What Ohno is saying is not that Toyota never builds an automobile before they have a firm sale with a live human customer, but that the processes in their factories and their supply chains operate on a pull system and that no production is authorized without the downstream process (the customer) consuming the part and giving a pull signal.

This is called the downstream pull system. This is such a simple theory that many manufacturers who learn it mistakenly think that they do it. Of the automotive manufacturers, only Toyota has insisted on a pull system for decades and built it into how they sell and build cars. This and their relentless focus on kaizen to reduce cost and improve quality is why Toyota is in a position to become number one, and not because they are building factories faster than anyone else.

El modelo indú visto por un indú

Gurcharan Das, un directivo de Procter & Gamble en India, escribió un ensayo interpretando las características del desarrollo indú. Resulta de mucho interés para conocer en detalle la evolución del crecimiento indú, para ver sus debilidades y fortalezas, para compararlo con su vecino y competidor China, y entrever las perspectivas futuras de ambos.
Das indica dos elementos diferenciales de India frente a otros competidores asiáticos: apoyo en el mercado interno propio, y desarrollo basado en buena medida en emprendimientos personales. Ambas características lo diferencian de China, basada en desarrollo estatal y con baja intervención de emprendedores:

Rather than adopting the classic Asian strategy -- exporting labor-intensive, low-priced manufactured goods to the West -- India has relied on its domestic market more than exports, consumption more than investment, services more than industry, and high-tech more than low-skilled manufacturing. This approach has meant that the Indian economy has been mostly insulated from global downturns, showing a degree of stability that is as impressive as the rate of its expansion. The consumption-driven model is also more people-friendly than other development strategies. As a result, inequality has increased much less in India than in other developing nations. (Its Gini index, a measure of income inequality on a scale of zero to 100, is 33, compared to 41 for the United States, 45 for China, and 59 for Brazil.) Moreover, 30 to 40 percent of GDP growth is due to rising productivity -- a true sign of an economy's health and progress -- rather than to increases in the amount of capital or labor.
But what is most remarkable is that rather than rising with the help of the state, India is in many ways rising despite the state. The entrepreneur is clearly at the center of India's success story. India now boasts highly competitive private companies, a booming stock market, and a modern, well-disciplined financial sector. And since 1991 especially, the Indian state has been gradually moving out of the way -- not graciously, but kicked and dragged into implementing economic reforms. It has lowered trade barriers and tax rates, broken state monopolies, unshackled industry, encouraged competition, and opened up to the rest of the world. The pace has been slow, but the reforms are starting to add up.

Das apunta a las debilidades de India: burocracia estatal, leyes laborales inadecuadas, improductividad rural, débil industria.

India is poised at a key moment in its history. Rapid growth will likely continue -- and even accelerate. But India cannot take this for granted. Public debt is high, which discourages investment in needed infrastructure. Overly strict labor laws, though they cover only 10 percent of the work force, have the perverse effect of discouraging employers from hiring new workers. The public sector, although much smaller than China's, is still too large and inefficient -- a major drag on growth and employment and a burden for consumers. And although India is successfully generating high-end, capital- and knowledge-intensive manufacturing, it has failed to create a broad-based, labor-intensive industrial revolution -- meaning that gains in employment have not been commensurate with overall growth. Its rural population, meanwhile, suffers from the consequences of state-induced production and distribution distortions in agriculture that result in farmers' getting only 20 to 30 percent of the retail price of fruits and vegetables (versus the 40 to 50 percent farmers in the United States get).

Sobre la importancia del apoyo en el consumo interno:

For now, growth is being driven by services and domestic consumption. Consumption accounts for 64 percent of India's GDP, compared to 58 percent for Europe, 55 percent for Japan, and 42 percent for China. That consumption might be a virtue embarrasses many Indians, with their ascetic streak, but, as the economist Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley puts it, "India's consumption-led approach to growth may be better balanced than the resource-mobilization model of China."

Sobre las fuerzas que lideran el crecimiento en India:

More than 100 Indian companies now have a market capitalization of over a billion dollars, and some of these -- including Bharat Forge, Jet Airways, Infosys Technologies, Reliance Infocomm, Tata Motors, and Wipro Technologies -- are likely to become competitive global brands soon. Foreigners have invested in over 1,000 Indian companies via the stock market. Of the Fortune 500 companies, 125 now have research and development bases in India -- a testament to its human capital. And high-tech manufacturing has taken off. All these changes have disciplined the banking sector. Bad loans now account for less than 2 percent of all loans (compared to 20 percent in China), even though none of India's shoddy state-owned banks has so far been privatized.
(...) Economic history teaches that the Industrial Revolution as it was experienced by the West was usually led by one industry. It was textile exports in the United Kingdom, railways in the United States. India, too, may have found the engine that could fuel its takeoff and transform its economy: providing white-collar services that are outsourced by companies in the rest of the world. Software and business-process outsourcing exports have grown from practically nothing to $20 billion and are expected to reach $35 billion by 2008. The constraining factor is likely to be not demand but the ability of India's educational system to produce enough quality English-speaking graduates.

Sobre la importancia de los emprendedores en India, y su comparación con China.

The contrast between India's entrepreneur-driven growth and China's state-centered model is stark. China's success is largely based on exports by state enterprises or foreign companies. Beijing remains highly suspicious of entrepreneurs. Only 10 percent of credit goes to the private sector in China, even though the private sector employs 40 percent of the Chinese work force. In India, entrepreneurs get more than 80 percent of all loans. Whereas Jet Airways, in operation since 1993, has become the undisputed leader of India's skies, China's first private airline, Okay Airways, started flying only in February 2005.

El punto débil: la falta de una industria mano de obra intensiva. Esta es la fortaleza de China, que ha sacado a millones de campesinos a las ciudades (ver lo que dice Poch)

What has been peculiar about India's development so far is that high growth has not been accompanied by a labor-intensive industrial revolution that could transform the lives of the tens of millions of Indians still trapped in rural poverty. Many Indians watch mesmerized as China seems to create an endless flow of low-end manufacturing jobs by exporting goods such as toys and clothes and as their better-educated compatriots export knowledge services to the rest of the world. They wonder fearfully if India is going to skip an industrial revolution altogether, jumping straight from an agricultural economy to a service economy. Economies in the rest of the world evolved from agriculture to industry to services. India appears to have a weak middle step. Services now account for more than 50 percent of India's GDP, whereas agriculture's share is 22 percent, and industry's share is only 27 percent (versus 46 percent in China). And within industry, India's strength is high-tech, high-skilled manufacturing.

Debilidades estructurales:

Electric power is less reliable and more expensive in India than in competitor nations. Checkpoints keep trucks waiting for hours. Taxes and import duties have come down, but the cascading effect of indirect taxes will continue to burden Indian manufacturers until a uniform goods-and-services tax is implemented. Stringent labor laws continue to deter entrepreneurs from hiring workers. The "license raj" may be gone, but an "inspector raj" is alive and well; the "midnight knock" from an excise, customs, labor, or factory inspector still haunts the smaller entrepreneur.

La educación, un aspecto particularmente débil:

The government's most damaging failure is in public education. Consider one particularly telling statistic: according to a recent study by Harvard University's Michael Kremer, one out of four teachers in India's government elementary schools is absent and one out of two present is not teaching at any given time. Even as the famed Indian Institutes of Technology have acquired a global reputation, less than half of the children in fourth-level classes in Mumbai can do first-level math. It has gotten so bad that even poor Indians have begun to pull their kids out of government schools and enroll them in private schools, which charge $1 to $3 a month in fees and which are spreading rapidly in slums and villages across India. (Private schools in India range from expensive boarding schools for the elite to low-end teaching shops in markets.) Although teachers' salaries are on average considerably lower in private schools, their students perform much better. A recent national study led by Pratham, an Indian nongovernmental organization, found that even in small villages, 16 percent of children are now in private primary schools. These kids scored 10 percent higher on verbal and math exams than their peers in public schools.

Pero aún más, la salud pública:

The same dismal story is being repeated in health and water services, which are also de facto privatized. The share of private spending on health care in India is double that in the United States. Private wells account for nearly all new irrigation capacity in the country. In a city like New Delhi, private citizens cope with an irregular water supply by privately contributing more than half the total cost of the city's water supply. At government health centers, meanwhile, 40 percent of doctors and a third of nurses are absent at any given time. According to a study by Jishnu Das and Jeffrey Hammer, of the World Bank, there is a 50 percent chance that a doctor at such a center will recommend a positively harmful therapy.

Para Das, el resultado final está abierto...

Still, the poor state of governance reminds Indians of how far they are from being a truly great nation. They will reach such greatness only when every Indian has access to a good school, a working health clinic, and clean drinking water. Fortunately, half of India's population is under 25 years old. Based on current growth trends, India should be able to absorb an increasing number of people into its labor force. And it will not have to worry about the problems of an aging population. This will translate into what economists call a "demographic dividend," which will help India reach a level of prosperity at which, for the first time in its history, a majority of its citizens will not have to worry about basic needs. Yet India cannot take its golden age of growth for granted. If it does not continue down its path of reform -- and start to work on bringing governance up to par with the private economy -- then a critical opportunity will have been lost.

Argentina: El INDEC confirma la desnacionalización de empresas

Confirmando lo que se ve simplemente leyendo los diarios, el INDEC da cifras del impacto de la entrada de capital extranjero en reemplazo de capital argentino (en La Nación):

Pese a la intención oficial de fomentar un empresariado argentino fuerte, la mayor parte de las grandes compañías que opera en la Argentina está en manos de capitales extranjeros.
(...) Si lo que se utiliza para comparar es el valor de producción, la relación se quintuplica.
(...) Ocurre lo mismo si lo que se mide es el valor agregado: las compañías extranjeras tienen un valor agregado seis veces mayor respecto de las de capital nacional.
(...) "La mayor diferencia se da en la utilidad, que es 11 veces mayor tomando los dos tercios de empresas con origen del capital con algún grado de participación extranjera respecto del tercio nacional. Además, en el año 2005, la utilidad de las empresas con participación extranjera se duplicó respecto de 2003", reveló el organismo oficial.
(...) "las compañías cuya participación extranjera supera el 50% -294 empresas-, explican un 90% de la utilidad generada por las 500 empresas del panel" observado.
(...) La encuesta también midió la creación de puestos de trabajo en el sector: entre 2003 y 2005, las 500 empresas más grandes de la Argentina han incrementado su plantel en unos 29.000 puestos de trabajo por año, pasando en el trienio de unos 503.000 a 561.000. En esas compañías, el salario medio mensual aumentó 660 pesos durante el mismo período.

(...) Los datos corresponden al informe "Grandes empresas de la Argentina" que el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (Indec) elabora en base a la información de las 500 empresas más grandes del país. Pese a que se difundió ayer, el estudio fue confeccionado hasta fines de 2005. Sin embargo, bien podría inferirse que el panorama se mantuvo durante 2006, dada la continuidad de la tendencia a la extranjerización de empresas. [En realidad, 2006 debe haber incrementado la diferencia]